QUAKER ECO-BULLETIN #10 October 1999

A project of the Environmental Working Group of Philadelphia Yearly Meeting

GLOBAL WARMING AND THE CONFERENCE IN BONN

The fifth international "Conference of the Parties" (COP-5) under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) will be held in Bonn from October 25 to November 5. It will deal with unresolved questions relating to the treaty negotiated at COP-3 in Kyoto in 1997 known as the Kyoto Protocol.

BACKGROUND The Kyoto Protocol commits the industrialized nations to achieve specific emissions reduction targets within the period 2008-2012. Together, these targets represent a 5% reduction below 1990 emissions levels, and about a 30% reduction below the projected 2010 levels.

The Kyoto Protocol was adopted by consensus. Participation by all industrialized nations was deemed essential, so each nation agreed to its own target, and targets vary widely from country to country. For examples: the European Union's target is an 8% reduction, the US target is a 7% reduction, the Australian target is not to exceed an 8% increase. The issues involved are extremely complex as is reflected in having different targets for each nation, a five-year attainment period, and an array of "flexibility mechanisms" for achieving reductions.

The flexibility mechanisms are of three types: a Clean Development Mechanism to give an industrialized nation credit for helping finance a project in a developing nation so as to avoid emissions; a Joint Implementation mechanism to give an industrialized nation credit for assisting with a project to reduce emissions in another industrialized nation; and an emissions trading system to enable industrialized nations to buy and sell emissions credits among themselves.

At Kyoto many decisions about implementing the Protocol were deferred to subsequent conferences. The most crucial of the deferred decisions are how and when developing nations will commit to limiting their emissions, how the flexibility mechanisms for achieving reductions will actually be implemented, and how the agreements will be enforced. Since Kyoto another issue has emerged as well: how to credit "carbon sinks" such as forests, which remove carbon from the atmosphere, and projects to protect or enhance them.

At COP-4, in Buenos Aires last year, little specific progress was made, but it was agreed to complete the negotiations on implementation at COP-6 at The Hague in year 2000. COP-5, in Bonn later this month, will set the direction for negotiations to be completed at The Hague.

AREAS OF DIFFICULTY A major area of difficulty concerns the extent to which a country can achieve its "reductions" through the flexibility mechanisms. The US wants no limit set on meeting targets through international investments and emissions trading. Most other nations, led by the European Union, want to require that the major part of a nation's reductions to be achieved domestically.

A second area of difficulty concerns agreements by developing nations to limit emissions. Before the Kyoto Conference, the US Senate passed a resolution opposing any agreement that does not include participation by developing nations. The Clinton administration has been seeking a formula for securing "meaningful participation" by developing nations in order to satisfy the Senate resolution. Most developing nations, led by China and India, want the industrialized nations to begin making reductions before they agree to any limits.

Global realities reinforce the opposition to the US positions. US per capita energy use is about twice Western Europe's and Japan's, 12 times China's and 20 times India's. Since 1990, China's and India's emissions have remained about the same while US emissions have increased more than 15%. There is fear the US will try to buy its way out of making domestic reductions. Emissions reductions since 1990 due to economic decline in the former Soviet-bloc nations mean they will have many emissions credits to sell.

THE POSITION OF FAITH COMMUNITIES The National Council of Churches (NCC) and the World Council of Churches (WCC) also oppose the US position. In a recent letter to President Clinton, the NCC stated that the threat of climate change is "...an issue with profound ethical dimensions. A significant part of the accelerated warming...is attributed to the emissions of the US and other nations that industrialized early. The most dire consequences of climate change [will be felt by] the poorer nations of the developing world...."

The WCC is sponsoring a conference next spring to review the ethical issues involved with emissions trading, which will report its findings prior to COP-6. The NCC expects to be an active participant in this conference.

Both the NCC and the WCC have asked their constituent bodies to urge negotiators in Bonn to adopt a position which: * accepts that reduction targets will be met mainly through policies and measures taken within the boundaries of nations required to reduce emissions; and which * recognizes that emissions trading entails major ethical issues which need to be resolved on a global basis before trading programs are implemented.

ACTION OPPORTUNITY Write, call, or e-mail President Clinton at The White House, Washington DC 20500; phone 202/456-1111 or 1414; e-mail <president@whitehouse.gov>. Because the negotiations in Bonn will determine how key issues relating to the Kyoto Protocol are resolved, urge the President to incorporate the concerns of the WCC and the NCC in the COP-5 negotiations. Ask for a good faith commitment by the US, in the name of simple justice, to meet its emissions goals without trying to buy its way out of this responsibility. Identifying the religious basis of your concern would be most helpful.

PLEASE NOTE: Members of the NCC Eco-Justice Working Group, including representation from the Society of Friends, will meet with Roger Ballintine, Deputy Assistant to the President for Environmental Initiatives, on Tuesday, October 26, to convey the concerns of the religious communities about the climate negotiations. Communicating with the President will support the expression of this concern in the meeting with his deputy.

FOR MORE INFORMATION: See UN FCCC web site - www.unfccc.de. See also Global Warming Updates at Union of Concerned Scientists' web site - www.ucsusa.org.

REGARDING QEB #9, last week President Clinton called the anti-CAFE rider attached to the Transportation Appropriations Bill "ill-advised," but he signed the bill with the rider attached.